New LED Lighting.( Cost to operate)

I see many of the new LED lamps being offer at the local hardware and Big box stores. When you first take a look at what they offer it seems like a no brain'er and that WOW I could save a tom of money and reduce my power bill.But then the Shock !!!
What ??? $35.00 to 45.00 dollars for a lamp.
So i sat down and did a little calculation.
Base on a lamp being on 4 hours per day every day of the year I compared a 75 watt incandescent to the New LED. I used a cost of .125 per KWH and also included the cost of 3 replacement incandescent lamps per year.
I calculated this over a 5 year period.
Here what I found .
Total cost to operate which includes the cost of lamp
LED ---------- $43.80 over the five year period.
Incandescent - $76.60 over the five year period.

Overall savings per year is $14.56 per year or $72.80 over 5 Years
This give you a payback per lamp at around

2.75 years payback

if the lamp runs you around $40.00 bucks.
Seems like a positive investment, However ..
As most of you have seen with seen with the Fluorescent replacement lamps on the market. "They seem to fail well before the rated life" mainly because the rated life does not always take in to consideration the switching on and off of the lamp. Switching has a tendency to degrade the lamp life span.
Since this technology in this application is new, it has yet to been seem how these will perform in the Real world. Maybe if the lamp manufacturer put up warranty that exceeds the payback with an actual way of getting a replacement. I might consider.
Until then I recommend wait till the price drops.